3 Global Trade Trends to Watch in 2025

Author:  Michael Salerno, Vice President, International Banking

As global markets continue to evolve at a rapid pace, so do the opportunities and challenges for businesses engaged in international trade. From payment modernization to smarter risk management, companies and customers are rethinking how they move money, manage relationships, and protect their assets.

Understanding key trends in cross-border commerce is essential for staying competitive in this shifting landscape. Here are three major developments shaping the future of global trade and how businesses and consumers can prepare.

1. Payments Are Moving Faster and Smarter

Global payment systems are undergoing a major transformation. As businesses increasingly rely on real-time transactions and cross-border partnerships, the demand for faster, safer, and more transparent payment solutions has never been greater.

One of the biggest drivers of this shift is ISO 20022, the global messaging standard for financial transactions. With implementation by the Federal Reserve and financial institutions worldwide, ISO enables richer, more structured and standardized data for electronic transfers, no matter where you do business. Think of it as a universal language that banks, payment systems, and financial institutions can use to communicate with each other more effectively. 

This matters because enhanced data leads to greater efficiency, improved fraud protection, and reduced manual intervention. As structured payment information becomes more accessible, banks can automate key steps in the transaction process, including Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) and sanctions screening, which are traditionally friction points in cross-border transactions.

For businesses and customers, the result is faster settlements, fewer errors, and more transparency from start to finish. The structured data format will allow for interoperability between domestic and global payments systems that don’t communicate today and provide opportunity for richer reporting and analysis capabilities. It's also flexible and extensible, futureproofing the solution so new payment types or features can be added without having to overhaul entire payment systems.

2. AI is Transforming Trade Finance and Compliance

Artificial intelligence (AI) is making a significant impact in the world of global trade, especially in traditionally manual, paper-heavy processes like compliance and document review.

Banks and businesses alike are turning to AI to:

• Automate foreign exchange (FX) trading based on set parameters
• Streamline compliance reviews by identifying risk factors more efficiently
• Digitize and validate letters of credit and trade documentation

For example, document checking — which once took hours to complete — is now being simplified through AI-powered systems that highlight only the areas of concern. This allows employees to focus their attention where it’s most needed. In addition to improving speed and accuracy, AI helps solve a major challenge: talent shortages in trade operations. Many experts are nearing retirement, and it's increasingly difficult to attract younger professionals to these highly detailed, manual roles.

AI also helps banks respond to regulatory changes more efficiently and stay ahead of the growing need for speed and accuracy in global transactions. For businesses and customers, this leads to quicker approvals, fewer delays, and a smoother process when moving goods or receiving payments internationally.

3. Risk Management Is More Critical Than Ever

With ongoing geopolitical conflicts, inflation concerns, and a volatile currency landscape, global trade has become increasingly complex. Companies that once relied on stable exchange rates and a few international partners are now rethinking their strategies to stay ahead.

At FNBO, we’re seeing more customers:

• Reevaluate supply chains to ensure greater diversity and resilience
• Hedge currency risk using forward contracts and other FX tools
• Negotiate more secure payment terms based on country-specific risk
• Adopt trade finance tools like letters of credit to guarantee payment

Even small currency fluctuations can significantly impact profit margins. For example, if a customer budgets for the euro at 1.10 and it drops to 1.02, locking in a forward contract can help preserve profits and reduce tariff-related expenses.

We're also helping customers update contracts, adjust pricing models based on real-time exchange rates, and improve transparency with international partners. In short, risk management is no longer optional. It needs to be an integrated part of a company’s global trade strategy.

Global trade evolves quickly, and businesses must be equally agile to stay competitive. Whether it’s adopting new payment technologies, using AI to increase efficiency, or building a strong risk management plan, the right strategies can help companies and customers succeed in a fast-changing global economy.

At FNBO, we are committed to helping businesses navigate uncertainty and uncover new opportunities. With tools, insights, and personalized guidance, our Global Banking team is here to support your international growth goals.

About the Author

Michael Salerno joined the bank in 2002 and currently leads the Global Banking team, which includes business development, international payments, foreign exchange management and trade finance solutions for corporate and correspondent banking customers. International issues can present challenges for organizations, and Michael enjoys creating simple and transparent solutions that reduce the complexity of doing business internationally.